Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.545531 3.073589 3.667192 4.381401 5.214739 6.153595 7.288515
2025-05-04 1.891320 2.587726 3.456219 4.608160 6.083774 7.897316 10.279732
2025-05-11 1.399742 2.136627 3.141598 4.588327 6.588926 9.225052 12.921561
2025-05-18 1.031453 1.740449 2.788688 4.410890 6.807569 10.157793 15.118389
2025-05-25 0.766968 1.421860 2.465252 4.189534 6.891715 10.869698 17.043324
2025-06-01 0.615320 1.241367 2.307164 4.172181 7.246397 11.974426 19.605735
2025-06-08 0.507748 1.108551 2.195908 4.200192 7.656922 13.182957 22.413956
2025-06-15 0.417720 0.984981 2.073956 4.182763 7.977246 14.264510 25.103312
2025-06-22 0.324547 0.830490 1.863714 3.969324 7.925599 14.722422 26.814972
2025-06-29 0.269865 0.743503 1.765642 3.944360 8.194924 15.728190 29.496413
2025-07-06 0.225189 0.667257 1.673963 3.914513 8.444904 16.713042 32.209308
2025-07-13 0.207116 0.651342 1.707957 4.142295 9.206034 18.663022 36.739078
2025-07-20 0.184210 0.618246 1.700396 4.287576 9.833578 20.445803 41.151651
2025-07-27 0.168071 0.599562 1.723437 4.503317 10.627873 22.607270 46.417035
2025-08-03 0.141954 0.544111 1.646298 4.481499 10.926417 23.850123 50.078051
2025-08-10 0.113790 0.472671 1.513208 4.306884 10.875865 24.404752 52.478016
2025-08-17 0.089463 0.404487 1.372926 4.089850 10.701675 24.690022 54.369811
2025-08-24 0.075943 0.369182 1.316325 4.072763 10.973935 25.900063 58.149354
2025-08-31 0.065743 0.342517 1.279184 4.100154 11.351113 27.355350 62.513142
2025-09-07 0.055978 0.313608 1.228662 4.083076 11.618864 28.596410 66.520470
2025-09-14 0.043873 0.268839 1.116314 3.874114 11.390827 28.741797 68.270213
2025-09-21 0.037220 0.245834 1.070817 3.849675 11.621678 29.915341 72.251722
2025-09-28 0.031515 0.224609 1.026258 3.820456 11.836077 31.066289 76.255960